DPT: "Türkiye'nin Üyeliğinin AB'ye Muhtemel Etkileri"
Türkçe: http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ab/uyelik/etki/olasi.pdf
English: http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ab/uyelik/etki/olasi-i.pdf
Kamis, 30 Desember 2004
Rabu, 29 Desember 2004
Togan: "Turkey: Toward EU Accession"
by Sübidey Togan
The World Economy, 2004, 27(7): 1013-1045.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study selected aspects of Turkish accession to the EU. Joining the EU will require that Turkey attains macroeconomic stability, adopts the Common Agricultural Policy, and liberalizes its services and network industries. Furthermore, joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation and standards - the acquis communautaire. According to the EU membership criteria, new members must be able to demonstrate the 'ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union'. Thus Turkey will be expected to adopt the euro when it is ready to do so, but not immediately upon accession. Integration will boost allocative efficiency in the Turkish economy which in turn will make the country a better place to invest. Furthermore, Turkey will reap the benefits from monetary integration and from migration of labour to the EU. But the welfare gains will have a price, and the price will be the adjustment costs associated with the adoption of the acquis communautaire. The final section of the paper considers the effects of accession on the EU in terms of migration and budgetary effects. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Downloads: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00614.x
(Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.)
The World Economy, 2004, 27(7): 1013-1045.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study selected aspects of Turkish accession to the EU. Joining the EU will require that Turkey attains macroeconomic stability, adopts the Common Agricultural Policy, and liberalizes its services and network industries. Furthermore, joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation and standards - the acquis communautaire. According to the EU membership criteria, new members must be able to demonstrate the 'ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union'. Thus Turkey will be expected to adopt the euro when it is ready to do so, but not immediately upon accession. Integration will boost allocative efficiency in the Turkish economy which in turn will make the country a better place to invest. Furthermore, Turkey will reap the benefits from monetary integration and from migration of labour to the EU. But the welfare gains will have a price, and the price will be the adjustment costs associated with the adoption of the acquis communautaire. The final section of the paper considers the effects of accession on the EU in terms of migration and budgetary effects. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Downloads: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00614.x
(Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.)
Rabu, 01 Desember 2004
Erzan et al.: "Growth and Immigration Scenarios for Turkey and the EU"
by Refik Erzan, Umut Kuzubaş and Nilüfer Yıldız
CEPS, EU-Turkey Working Papers
http://shop.ceps.be/downfree.php?item_id=1183
Abstract: In the debate about Turkish EU membership and free movement of labour it is often overlooked that the EU cannot exercise a zero migration policy even if permanent safeguards were used. Even under the currently prevailing strict regime, there is an annual net migration from Turkey to the EU-15 in the order of 35,000 people. Any slowdown or suspension in Turkey?s accession process is likely to lead lower growth and higher unemployment in Turkey. Moreover, the reform process might slow down or be partially reversed. The consequence of such a combination would be drastically higher number of potential migrants. A considerable proportion of them would be finding their way into the EU ? as experience has shown irrespective of legal restriction. It is thus possible that if Turkey loses the membership perspective, the EU may end up having more immigrants than under a free movement of labour regime with a prosperous EU member Turkey. Moreover, the composition of this migration would be less conducive for the EU labour markets - and - for integration in the host societies.
The experiences of Greece, Portugal and Spain indicate that a successful accession period with high growth and effective implementation of the reforms reduces and gradually eliminates the migration pressures. There is no a priori reason why Turkey would not go through a similar experience.
CEPS, EU-Turkey Working Papers
http://shop.ceps.be/downfree.php?item_id=1183
Abstract: In the debate about Turkish EU membership and free movement of labour it is often overlooked that the EU cannot exercise a zero migration policy even if permanent safeguards were used. Even under the currently prevailing strict regime, there is an annual net migration from Turkey to the EU-15 in the order of 35,000 people. Any slowdown or suspension in Turkey?s accession process is likely to lead lower growth and higher unemployment in Turkey. Moreover, the reform process might slow down or be partially reversed. The consequence of such a combination would be drastically higher number of potential migrants. A considerable proportion of them would be finding their way into the EU ? as experience has shown irrespective of legal restriction. It is thus possible that if Turkey loses the membership perspective, the EU may end up having more immigrants than under a free movement of labour regime with a prosperous EU member Turkey. Moreover, the composition of this migration would be less conducive for the EU labour markets - and - for integration in the host societies.
The experiences of Greece, Portugal and Spain indicate that a successful accession period with high growth and effective implementation of the reforms reduces and gradually eliminates the migration pressures. There is no a priori reason why Turkey would not go through a similar experience.
Senin, 22 November 2004
Prof. Uğur Korum has passed away... - Prof. Uğur Korum'un vefatı...
Professor Uğur Korum, one of the leading and most influential Turkish economists, has passed away on the 22nd of November 2004.(Sevgili Hocamız, değerli iktisatçı, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF İktisat Bölümü'nün eski öğretim üyelerinden Prof Dr. Uğur Korum'u 22 Kasım 2004 günü kaybettik.)
Minggu, 01 Agustus 2004
Steinherr et al.: "The Turkish Banking Sector: Challenges and Outlook in Transition to EU Membership"
by A. Steinherr, A. Tükel and Murat Üçer
CEPS, EU-Turkey Working Papers
http://shop.ceps.be/downfree.php?item_id=1146
Abstract: The paper explores the readiness of the Turkish banking sector for integration into the European Union. We address the issue from four different angles. First, we review the present structure and health of the sector, including the state of the regulatory framework, providing where possible a comparative perspective with the larger EU accession countries. Second, we look at the sector?s financial solidity in 2003, with a view to gauging its readiness to adapt to a more challenging banking environment. Third, we look at the present obstacles to financial deepening and identify the most pressing issues that seem to hinder the sector?s growth. Fourth, we explore issues of productivity and efficiency in the sector. In a final section, we ask the question of whether the Turkish banking sector is or will be ready in due time for EU accession and formulate some policy recommendations. We conclude that in 2004 the Turkish banking sector compares well with those of the new members of the EU. The major source of financial instability in the past was macroeconomic instability and government involvement. At present Turkey is closer to achieving macro-stability than ever in the past, and the government is reducing its direct involvement. Major strides have been accomplished after the crisis of 2001 in cleaning up a very nontransparent and politicized banking environment and in upgrading the regulatory structure to EU standards. Clearly, the job is not finished yet, with the challenge of introducing risk-management based on Basle II and of bringing the capital market to EU standards. Further consolidation and mergers with foreign partners will be inevitable. Should EU integration become a concrete vision of the future, macro stability has great chances to become rooted in Turkey and the banking sector will quickly move to EU standards, long before any accession date.
CEPS, EU-Turkey Working Papers
http://shop.ceps.be/downfree.php?item_id=1146
Abstract: The paper explores the readiness of the Turkish banking sector for integration into the European Union. We address the issue from four different angles. First, we review the present structure and health of the sector, including the state of the regulatory framework, providing where possible a comparative perspective with the larger EU accession countries. Second, we look at the sector?s financial solidity in 2003, with a view to gauging its readiness to adapt to a more challenging banking environment. Third, we look at the present obstacles to financial deepening and identify the most pressing issues that seem to hinder the sector?s growth. Fourth, we explore issues of productivity and efficiency in the sector. In a final section, we ask the question of whether the Turkish banking sector is or will be ready in due time for EU accession and formulate some policy recommendations. We conclude that in 2004 the Turkish banking sector compares well with those of the new members of the EU. The major source of financial instability in the past was macroeconomic instability and government involvement. At present Turkey is closer to achieving macro-stability than ever in the past, and the government is reducing its direct involvement. Major strides have been accomplished after the crisis of 2001 in cleaning up a very nontransparent and politicized banking environment and in upgrading the regulatory structure to EU standards. Clearly, the job is not finished yet, with the challenge of introducing risk-management based on Basle II and of bringing the capital market to EU standards. Further consolidation and mergers with foreign partners will be inevitable. Should EU integration become a concrete vision of the future, macro stability has great chances to become rooted in Turkey and the banking sector will quickly move to EU standards, long before any accession date.
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